Billy 5i Research Coverage at 5i Research
Member since: Aug '20 · 2918 Opinions
Analyst estimates continue to trend higher, sales and earnings growth are strong, and margins are expanding. It trades at a forward earnings multiple of 44X, which is not cheap, but this is a company that is benefiting from the AI revolution and we think management has executed well. At the first sign of a potential slowdown in AI Capex spending, we think these names could get hit, but we also believe it is sitll relatively early in the AI movement. For a long-term hold, we would be comfortable adding here.
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We like the sector, and the stock is cheap. We would be OK buying.
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Investing 101: Lump-Sum vs. Cash Flows
Time is money, and money is time. One of the founding principles of investing is that cash upfront is almost always better than spread out over a period of time. To achieve the same ending amount, less money is required if it is provided in full upfront than spread out over time. To demonstrate this, we show below that $10,000 upfront grows to ~$25,000 in 12 years, growing at an annual rate of 8%. Conversely, an investor would require 12 payments of $1,225 ($14,700 total) earning 8% annually to have $25,000 by the end of 12 year period. Therefore, $10,000 upfront growing at 8% achieves the same ending goal as $14,700 spread out over 12 years.
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The surge in former Bitcoin mining stocks that have rebranded as AI plays has been remarkably strong. While some near-term volatility is possible, we believe there remains meaningful upside potential given the likelihood of an extended AI CapEx spending cycle.
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BCE has already seen two broker upgrades following its investor day. BCE outlined plans to save $1.5B and expand internet service westward, targets $1.5B in AI revenue, and expects revenue growth of 4%. Free cash flow is expected to rise 7% annually through 2028. Opening up competition remains a threat. Overall, investors were pleased with a solid cost-reduction plan but challenges certainly remain.
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Once closed (it is approved), debt holders will own 88% of the stock, and 316 million new shares will be issued. While the restructing gets the company a better ability to 'survive' it does not really set it up to 'prosper'. The dilution is massive, of course, and the company still needs to deal with declining sales (down 20% last quarter). The restructuring does not help sales, of course. Cash flow has been highly negative. Lower interest rates will help this, but it will still not have much financial capacity. The company is also quite tiny now and this limits investor appetite. Could it turn around? Sure, the possibility is there. But it could also continue to swirl down the drain. We would not want to get involved here. Hard to believe it was once worth $14 billion (now $60 million).
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Strength in the Markets Despite Global Tensions: Earnings are Surprisingly Good
For this year, looking at S&P 500 earnings, just completed third-quarter earnings growth is projected at about eight per cent year-over-year, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth for the index. For the full year, earnings growth is expected to be around 10.9 per cent to 11 per cent, with revenue growth of about 6.1 per cent. Looking out to next year, earnings growth is forecast to accelerate, with estimates around 13.8 per cent year-over-year, according to data firm FactSet Research Systems Inc. Revenue growth for 2026 is estimated around 6.6 per cent. Earnings truly drive the market, and the surprisingly robust showing — even in the face of tariffs and a possible recession — has made investors confident enough to spend their cash.
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We are comfortable with EMCC's strategy and would be fine with it if it matches one's objectives. However, it is quite small currently at only $14M assets. We would consider it too small to endorse. There are actually very few options with low US exposure. One we would be comfortable with is IDVO (US traded), with only 6% US exposure. Yields are a bit lower but still above average.
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The valuation looks fine here and the company is going from no revenues to high revenues this coming year. There are some execution risks because of this but things appear to largely be on track. Add in a strong backdrop for metals and we think ARTG looks interesting.
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We continue to like the name but given the run it has had, some volatility should be expected. They have significant growth ahead, are signing contracts and most of the backdrop in the sector seems to indicate that demand remains strong for the foreseeable future.
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Investing 101: Canadian Depositary Receipts (CDRs):
Canadian Depositary Receipts (CDRs) are a relatively new concept that has been introduced in recent years to help Canadians gain access to U.S. blue-chip stocks in a simplified, low-cost manner.
Canadian Depositary Receipts (CDRs) are securities that trade on the NEO Exchange in Canada, and the concepts are essentially similar to American Depository Receipts (ADRs) that are listed on American exchanges. CDRs give Canadians access to some of the largest US companies listed on NYSE and NASDAQ through a Canadian exchange in Canadian dollars. CDRs are issued and managed by the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC). There are no management fees, so the main cost that investors will incur is the buy/sell commission on trades.
PROS:
Accessibility in registered accounts: CDRs can be held within registered accounts, similar to other Canadian-listed securities. We think CDRs can fit in any account, but generally, growth investments are usually better in a TFSA.
Currency-hedge feature: There is a currency-hedge built into the shares. That said, the built-in currency hedge has a certain cost and may not perfectly track changes in track exchange rate. There are no management fees associated with CDRs, but CIBC does make money on the currency hedge. While investors do not see this as a charge, it does impact net asset value. This cost is estimated to be about 0.50% annually.
The benefit of currency hedging could be explained through this example. For instance, if the Canadian dollar strengthens relative to the US dollar, then that investment will lag behind the equivalent US stock, and vice versa, if the US dollar appreciates, the CDR will appreciate more than the US equivalent. As investors might expect, this is simply a currency call.
Fractional ownership: One of the key advantages of CDRs is a lower share price. CDRs are structured so that the price per share always starts at $20, giving a wider array of investors access to these global companies. In simple terms, CDRs represent fractional interest in the underlying US shares.
CONS:
Illiquidity: The primary disadvantage of owning CDRs is their lower liquidity than the US shares. Consequently, a wider bid-ask spread could result in a higher cost when buying/selling for investors.
Withholding taxes still apply: Despite trading on Canadian exchanges, the underlying assets are still U.S. shares, which are subject to withholding taxes for dividends received (except in an RRSP account).
Limited selection: Since the product is still new, only a handful of well-known U.S. mega-cap stocks are currently available. Most small- and mid-cap U.S. companies are not yet offered as CDRs.
Conclusion
Overall, we are comfortable with CDRs for investors who want lower-priced exposure to U.S. securities with a built-in Canadian hedge. They are not fundamentally different from owning the underlying shares, aside from their price, the currency hedge, and where they trade. The underlying U.S. shares are held by CIBC, which issues the CDRs.
We generally prefer non-hedged products and would favour owning the U.S. shares directly if investors have the capital available and are comfortable with currency exposure. That said, we view CDRs as a good complementary option within a portfolio, and we would be comfortable buying them for U.S. company exposure.
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Debt to equity is roughly 3.9X and interest coverage is 5X. The company has carried higher debt loads in the pat and we would not be too concerned about the debt here. Gross margins at the business are in the 65% range and net margins are in the 15% to 20% range, so we don't think margins are overly concerning either and there is some 'wiggle room' to take on higher growth, lower margin businesses as well, while still having a healthy margin profile.
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We would suggest EQL.
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We would be comfortable buying X today.
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TSU has been under pressure over the years due to its asset impairment from a couple years ago, as well as recently a hardening insurance market. The stock has largely traded sideways for a few years, and it trades at a decent valuation of 12X forward earnings. We think it has potential to turn around and become a growth story again, but it has been quite weak for a while. For an investor seeking a larger, more stable insurance name, we would be comfortable with a switch, but if an investor is looking for a small-cap, Canadian specialty insurer that has the potential to see strong earnings growth, we would be comfortable holding TSU here.
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